Starting October 1, the diesel price could far exceed €2 per liter: a sharp jump of 24 euro cents at once. It would mean filling the tank would cost €12 more overnight.
This will be the scenario in barely 20 days if the diesel discount is not maintained, which ends on September 30. An incentive that, despite being in effect for several days, has failed to curb the unstoppable rise in diesel. But without aid, with fuel shortages and a highly tight market, it would be a perfect storm.
Diesel, 5 cents more expensive in ten days despite the discount
In some European filling stations it is already happening: diesel is served at €3 or more. In Spain we are far from that reality, as the hydrocarbon tax is lower. In fact, in September it has been reduced even further thanks to the exceptional measure applied since the start of the month: a discount of 20 euro cents per liter for diesel and 5 euro cents per liter for gasoline.
This responds to the provisions in the new anti-crisis plan for the conflict in the Middle East: if in July the year-on-year inflation for diesel or gasoline exceeded 15%, a 20-cent reduction would be activated in the Fuel Tax. That is exactly what happened: that month the price of diesel rose by 15.7% compared to 2025.
This 20-cent reduction in the Fuel Tax for diesel has meant that its price has become quite similar to that of gasoline, although slightly lower: as of today, September 10, the average price of diesel A is at €1.829 per liter, while unleaded 95 is at €1.867 per liter.
Even so, the price of diesel has not stopped rising, returning to late-August levels despite the tax relief: in just 10 days the average price per liter of diesel A has increased by almost 5 cents, going from €1.78 to the current €1.829.
Diesel could spike even more in October
As October begins, the scenario could be even worse: if the discount is not renewed it will translate into a sudden rise in diesel, quickly noticeable at the pumps. The Spanish Confederation of Gas Station Entrepreneurs (CEEES) warns: “If another Royal Decree is not approved, it will rise sharply by 24.4 euro cents (20 cents plus VAT),” says Nacho Rabadán, general director of CEEES.
Given that, even with the discount applied, it has risen 5 cents in just ten days, if it continues at that pace by September 30 it will already be around €2 per liter. Without the tax relief, the price could easily surpass that threshold and approach €2.20 per liter.
That the price of diesel keeps shooting up even with measures to mitigate it is because it is at unprecedented levels in the international market. “Diesel has never been this expensive, not even during the energy crisis, nor during the post-Covid bubble, nor during the war in Ukraine,” explains Rabadán to El Español.
Which, in turn, is due to the shortage of this fuel. Although refineries are operating nearly at their capacity, supply is not enough to meet demand. Vitol, the world’s leading oil trader, has warned that reserves are very tight and the forecast is for this to continue over the coming months. This diesel crisis is global: “We have a real problem with a lack of diesel in the markets, there is no product, and it affects not only Europe but all continents,” says Rabadán.
For the moment there is no government announcement to approve a new anti-crisis Royal Decree, and the one approved in June expires on September 30. From the Executive, they say they are closely monitoring the situation, but without detailing new measures.
