The Automotive Industry Has Its Days Numbered as We Know It: In a Few Years One-Third of the Global Market Will Be in Chinese Brands’ Hands

China has been the world’s leading car exporter for a couple of years now. Among the multitude of Chinese manufacturers, the Chery Group, which owns the Omoda and Jaecoo brands, became last year the first Chinese carmaker to exceed the milestone of exporting 5 million vehicles. As of July 31, 2025, the Chery Group had exported more than 5.17 million cars. In early 2026 they surpassed 6 million. The growth is exponential.

It is the most visible face of how the automotive industry is currently undergoing a profound transformation. With China’s rise and the economic model shift brought about by software-defined electric vehicles, a third of the market will be in the hands of new players.

Europe stagnates and China dominates the industry. Or not

Consulting firm Roland Berger has drawn up a view of the global automotive industry through 2040 in its report ‘Automotive Outlook 2040’ which deals with the future of the car. According to the firm, the key factor lies precisely in the regional shift of markets: volumes are expected to rise significantly in southern countries and in China (which will represent 60%), but not in Western markets, which have already reached what is called the “automotive peak”.

In short, cars will be renewed, but there will be no further advances in terms of cars per inhabitant. However, this will not prevent the spread of electric cars. Analysts indicate that the 70 % of new cars sold worldwide will be electric by 2040 and that, in Europe, this share could reach 90 % with the current Brussels authorities’ policy (as long as it does not collapse in 2026).

Roland Berger also foresees that the Chinese conquest will continue. By 2040, Chinese car manufacturers should have captured between 25 % and 34 % of the world market, and six of the twenty largest players will come from the Middle Kingdom. Therefore, contrary to what some fear, they will not reach total dominance. But of course, this requires that the players wake up to it right now.

Will China end the European automotive industry? There is nothing set in stone, replies Roland Berger, which outlines two scenarios. In the first, China and its industries prevail thanks to rapid growth and the lack of adaptation of European suppliers.

In the second scenario, by contrast, European industries are expected to adapt quickly, innovate and capitalize on their brand image to curb Chinese growth. But for that, “they must be much more effective,” warns the consultancy.

“If Western equipment manufacturers radically change their approach, for example by increasingly relying on standardized hardware and software platforms provided by third parties [as Renault or Volvo have already done with Android Automotive for their cars, for instance], they may become cost-competitive again. The result would be a new global balance of power by 2040, in which all players would have opportunities for growth,” explain Roland Berger.

“Manufacturers such as BYD, Geely, NIO, Xpeng or Leapmotor not only dominate their domestic market, but are already gaining global market share with highly competitive products, designed and developed in cycles of 18 to 24 months,” recall Faconauto, the Spanish industry association. “Their vertical integration (including batteries, chips, power electronics and software) gives them a structural advantage over brands that still rely on legacy platforms or external processes.”

We will have to see how things evolve and whether the European industry can recover quickly. Hopefully so.

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