World geopolitics are not getting any better. Fuel prices keep rising, in fact. To such an extent that some forecasts warn of a potential price tag of €4 per liter. But what underpins this theory?
Blockades that push prices higher
The troubles around fuel prices are likely to linger a little longer. Indeed, the geopolitical situation isn’t improving. On the contrary, it’s worsening day by day. It’s the kind of trend that influences Brent crude prices and, consequently, pump prices. That’s why, in September, the price of diesel averaged €2.40 per liter in France. Gasoline stood at €2.23 per liter.
Purer numbers? The €3 per liter milestone has almost been breached in many parts of France, such as Alsace and the Pyrénées-Orientales. This rise stems from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, several sensitive sites in Saudi Arabia were attacked.
That combination makes it harder for oil tankers to move through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Thierry Bros, a specialist in energy matters, told RMC: “Fin septembre, début octobre, on pourrait être dans les trois euros le litre, voire les dépasser. Tant que les guerres se poursuivent, les prix ne peuvent que monter”.
A future tax in 2029 that will push the bill higher
According to the expert, as long as wars persist around the world, prices will keep rising, with little to no ceiling. “Prices can only go up since there is no country from which we can secure extra production. By the end of the year, if we have not found solutions, we could be looking at four euros per liter.” warns Thierry Bros.
But could such a scenario actually unfold in Europe and France? A plausible theory, especially since new taxes are set to take effect 1 January 2027.
It concerns a new European regulation on methane. This measure is to come into force and could have knock-on effects at the pump. Still, Europe says it is open to delaying the introduction of this measure by a year, to 1 January 2028.
But that’s not all. A new tax will appear in 2029 as part of Europe’s new carbon pricing scheme. In total, the increase could reach up to €0.15 per liter of fuel.
Regardless, the outlook isn’t rosy for drivers. Pump prices aren’t expected to fall anytime soon.
