Gas Prices: What If Donald Trump Stopped Exporting Oil Abroad?

September 25, 2026

The fuel situation is fairly intricate in France and across the globe. Yet, the trend could worsen even further. The driver behind this: Donald Trump’s push to halt crude exports to foreign markets, a move that would ripple through economies worldwide.

The United States Is Also Facing a Sharp Rise in Fuel Prices

France is feeling the sting of skyrocketing fuel costs. The global geopolitical landscape is driving up the Brent crude price, lifting costs at the pump. But the scenario could get even more delicate down the road. On September 22, Trump floated the idea of stopping diesel exports and keeping production for American consumers. A decision of this kind would carry heavy global repercussions. Today, the United States stands as the world’s leading diesel exporter. Each day, roughly between 1.4 million and 1.6 million barrels of diesel depart for overseas markets.

It happens that the United States, like the rest of the world, is feeling the strain of the Strait of Hormuz blockage. If the pump price sits around the equivalent of about $X per gallon, it marks a historical high for fuel. By contrast, prices per gallon had been markedly lower before the Middle East tensions escalated. This development gives Trump pause and could potentially push toward an export halt for diesel.

Strong Reactions Emerge to Oppose This Measure

To frame his thinking, Trump leans on the law of supply and demand. He argues that if diesel exports are blocked and the resource is kept in the United States, there would be more supply for drivers and, as a result, prices would fall. The reality is more nuanced, and such a move, if undertaken, could have consequences even for Americans. For Europe, an export ban by the United States would likely drive prices higher rather than lower.

On one hand, supply from Russia has been cut off, and on the other, the Middle East would need to slash its exports significantly, particularly because of the Hormuz Strait disruption. A broad coalition of energy-sector players has pressed Trump to spell out the consequences of such a decision. The path forward remains unclear. Meanwhile, Chris Wright, the United States Secretary of Energy, indicated support for imposing export restrictions on companies.

Whatever happens, the outlook for motorists — including American drivers — remains grim, as fuel prices stay stubbornly high and the supply picture stays murky.

Nolan Kessler

I focus on performance-driven cars, emerging technologies, and the business forces shaping the automotive industry. My work aims to deliver clear, relevant insights without unnecessary noise, with a strong attention to detail and accuracy. I follow the evolution of mobility daily, with a particular interest in what defines the next generation of driving.